{"id":2434,"date":"2026-07-19T10:40:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-19T10:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2434"},"modified":"2026-07-19T10:40:08","modified_gmt":"2026-07-19T10:40:08","slug":"what-happens-when-ai-starts-gambling-on-soccer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2434","title":{"rendered":"What happens when AI starts gambling on soccer?"},"content":{"rendered":"<section>\n<p>How do you measure whether an AI is actually good at predicting the future? The CTO of startup Obside emailed me recently with a fascinating real-world benchmark.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2432\">Meet the JPMorgan wealth planner in your college team\u2019s locker room<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Instead of giving AI models another standardized test, Obside had ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Kimi bet on World Cup matches using live Polymarket odds.<\/p>\n<p>An hour before kickoff, each model goes into agent mode, researches the teams, injuries, and other public information, then decides how much of its virtual $10,000 bankroll to wager.<\/p>\n<p>When I checked after the semifinals on Thursday, French open-source darling Mistral led the field, followed by OpenAI&#8217;s GPT 5.5, and DeepSeek&#8217;s V4. Claude Opus 4.8, meanwhile, sat firmly at the bottom, the only model in the red. Maybe Anthropic&#8217;s AI is simply too ethical to be a gambler? <\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2430\">I\u2019m a mom of 2 kids. Sending voice memos to Claude helps me organize my life.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check out the current standings here.<\/p>\n<p>This fun exercise measures something many AI benchmarks can&#8217;t: judgment under uncertainty. That&#8217;s a theme I&#8217;ve explored before. Last year, I wrote about ChatGPT entering a secret forecasting tournament run by economists, where it performed no better than the average human contestant.<\/p>\n<p>Betting on soccer isn&#8217;t the same thing, but it&#8217;s another clever way to test whether AI can turn online information into profitable predictions when nobody yet knows the answer.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Sign up for BI&#8217;s Tech Memo newsletter <\/em><\/strong>here<strong><em>. Reach out to me via email at <\/em><\/strong>abarr@businessinsider.com<strong><em>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2428\">Anti-AI data center protesters rally across the US<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Can AI predict the future? A World Cup betting contest reveals which models make the smartest wagers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2433,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What happens when AI starts gambling on soccer? - American home journals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2434\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What happens when AI starts gambling on soccer? - American home journals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Can AI predict the future? 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