{"id":2341,"date":"2026-07-16T10:35:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T10:35:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2341"},"modified":"2026-07-16T10:35:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T10:35:23","slug":"hitting-it-big-betting-on-startups-in-the-ai-era-will-be-a-lot-harder-but-silicon-valley-might-not-feel-the-worst-of-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2341","title":{"rendered":"Hitting it big betting on startups in the AI era will be a lot harder, but Silicon Valley might not feel the worst of it"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

I wish I could have gotten in early on that company.<\/em><\/p>\n

With AI company valuations acting like rocketships, it’s easy to play the “what if” game.<\/p>\n

Read more The AI burn book: Decoding the cat fights between Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Anthropic<\/a><\/p>\n

The reality is the process isn’t as simple as writing a check and watching your money multiply many times over. (Even if it might seem that way.)<\/p>\n

Take Anthropic. The AI giant, valued at $1.2 trillion in secondary markets<\/u>, looks like a no-brainer investment now, but that wasn’t always the case. Back in 2023, it wasn’t generating revenue, didn’t have a public model, and was far behind the behemoth that is OpenAI. The asking price? A $4.1 billion valuation.<\/p>\n

Menlo Ventures partner Matt Murphy spoke to BI’s Ben Bergman about how the VC firm had to break a lot of its own rules to greenlight the investment<\/u>. A few rounds later, Menlo’s $1 billion investment is now worth around $14 billion.<\/p>\n

But what appears inevitable now felt far from certain when the first check was written.<\/p>\n

“There was definitely some heartburn within the firm,” Murphy told Ben.<\/p>\n

Anthropic remains the exception, not the rule.<\/strong><\/p>\n

They don’t call them unicorns because they’re easy to find. For every $1 billion-plus startup, there are thousands that never got close.<\/p>\n

The odds have never been great \u2014 if it were easy, everyone would do it \u2014 but they’re going to get worse.<\/p>\n

Read more Why Google partnered with former Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal\u2019s $2 billion AI search startup<\/a><\/p>\n

Here’s why:<\/p>\n

The barrier to entry is almost on the floor: <\/strong>AI makes it easier than ever to build a startup<\/u>. Thanks to vibe coding, even people who think C++ is a new type of grade can still easily turn an idea into a company without an army of developers. If you thought it was difficult sorting through loads of startups, it’s about to get way worse.<\/p>\n

There’s a lot of new money: <\/strong>Big-time acquisitions and record-breaking IPOs mean millionaires are getting minted every day. Founders love turning into investors, and there will be plenty with money to burn.<\/p>\n

The FOMO effect: <\/strong>For all the people who are hitting it big, there are way more who might have just missed the boat. That’s the kind of thing that can motivate a person to jump at the next time they get an opportunity. Doubling down on the next one to make up for missing the last one can be a dangerous game, and raises the price for everyone on the hunt for deals.<\/p>\n

So how does it all end? VC investors are built to make bets that mostly won’t pan out. Their job might get harder, but it won’t be a death knell.<\/p>\n

But for the rest of us? The public markets are a lot more unforgiving than the private ones. So when some of these gems finally make it big, mom-and-pop investors might be the ones coming up short.<\/p>\n

Read more The really big one<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anthropic turned Menlo Ventures’ $1 billion investment into roughly $14 billion. But finding the next breakout AI startup will only get harder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2340,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tech"],"yoast_head":"\nHitting it big betting on startups in the AI era will be a lot harder, but Silicon Valley might not feel the worst of it - American home journals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=2341\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hitting it big betting on startups in the AI era will be a lot harder, but Silicon Valley might not feel the worst of it - American home journals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Anthropic turned Menlo Ventures' $1 billion investment into roughly $14 billion. 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