{"id":1485,"date":"2026-06-18T12:04:30","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T12:04:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=1485"},"modified":"2026-06-18T12:04:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T12:04:30","slug":"what-prediction-markets-are-saying-about-the-chances-of-california-passing-a-billionaire-tax","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanhomejournals.com\/?p=1485","title":{"rendered":"What prediction markets are saying about the chances of California passing a billionaire tax"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Prediction markets aren’t sure whether California Gov. Gavin Newsom can stop the state’s proposed billionaire tax.<\/p>

Read more Move over, Cursor. This AI video startup is having its own breakout moment<\/a><\/p>

Newsom previously vowed to fight California’s so-called billionaire tax before it reached the ballot. His efforts are down to the wire, as there is a June 25 deadline to certify whether the proposal will be on the November ballot.<\/p>

As of Wednesday, June 17, Kalshi and Polymarket showed it was just under a coin flip on whether the tax would make the ballot.<\/p>

Both prediction markets took a major dive after Bloomberg and Politico separately reported in the last week that Newsom was working to kill the tax. Before the reports, both markets were above 80%. Polymarket traders priced the odds of the initiative making the ballot at near 90%.<\/p>

The markets are far more skeptical that voters will support the tax. As of Wednesday afternoon, Kalshi traders gave the proposal just over a 19% chance. Polymarket traders pegged it at just an 18% chance.<\/p>

Both markets only require the tax to pass, which would require a simple majority of Californians to vote in favor of it (provided the proposal actually makes the ballot).<\/p>

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